The new year has begun, and I will post here an article I originally wrote about risk control. I hope that all of us will not forget the risks inherent in this market while pursuing profits. good returns in one year. (This article is too long, I can only post the link last time, now Xiaokui Banzhu asked me to repost it.

Speculative market risk control9

　 Importance of risk control:

As the operating theory of stocks and futures, there are various theories and schools, but they can be summed up in two aspects, one is market analysis, and the other is risk control. These two aspects are like a spear and a shield. Market analysis is a spear, a weapon to attack the enemy; risk control is a shield, a tool to protect oneself. Both are indispensable. In the speculative market, market analysis is often valued by people, but risk control is indeed often ignored by people. But don’t forget that if you only charge forward and don’t protect yourself, then no matter how tough a warrior is, he will die in battle sooner or later. Sun Tzu said: “In the past, those who were good fighters were invincible first, and waited for the enemy to be victorious. The invincible lies in oneself, and the victory lies in the enemy.” That’s what he said. All people engaged in venture capital can only understand the importance of risk control after experiencing the blood lesson!
As a market analysis, it can be divided into two parts: basic analysis and technical analysis, and basic analysis And technical analysis can also be divided step by step in more detail, but those do not belong to the scope of my article. I mainly elaborate on various aspects of risk control here. As risk control, I think it includes The following aspects:

First, correctly understand the risks of the market.

Hundreds of millions of people all over the world are investing in the stock market and futures market for one purpose. They all want to make profits from this speculative market, but is everyone in the stock market and futures market Can make money? That must be impossible. Before entering this market, everyone must be prepared to lose money. This market is changing rapidly, and many risks are unexpected for each of us. A correct understanding of the nature of this market is a necessary prerequisite for participating in this risky market.

Aside from the role played by the stock market and futures market on a country’s economic activities, as far as this risky speculative market alone is concerned, it does not create value by itself. The money comes from other people’s pockets, and any money lost by anyone goes into other people’s pockets. Lifting off the glamorous veil of the stock market and futures market, in essence, it is a place where individuals cannibalize people, a place where a few people make money for the many people. This is a paradise for the winners and a hell for the losers. The stock market and the futures market don’t believe in tears, and don’t beg for anyone’s mercy. If you want to come here to pan for gold, you must clearly see the risks hidden in it. “Those who do not fully understand the harm of using troops cannot fully understand the benefits of using troops.

the choice of varieties: let’s talk about the stock market first, there are thousands of stocks in the stock market, but not all stocks have investment value or operational value, we are choosing operable The first thing to do before stocks is to eliminate those stocks whose risks outweigh their rewards, and narrow down the scope of stock selection, so that we can more accurately find operable stocks. What kind of stock is the stock selection mentioned here that cannot be intervened:
1. The variety with low trading volume cannot be done: if the trading volume of a stock is too small, then the operation There are difficulties in entering and exiting, no matter whether it is good or bad, you cannot intervene, in case the market goes against you, you cannot leave the market quickly, and the risk is uncontrollable.

2. Do not trade unfamiliar stocks:

Before intervening in a stock, you must do an in-depth and detailed analysis of the stock you want to intervene in, and have a full understanding of this stock. A stock speculates on the theme. You must know whether the stock you want to trade has the main theme or excuse to speculate. If you don’t know anything about this stock, it’s better not to touch this stock, no matter how others think about it. If you recommend it, you must figure out what you want to do. For some stocks, although the market makers put on such a gorgeous coat when they operate them, if the listed company of the stock is a serious loss-making company, then any theme for speculating on it may be the market makers’ intention to pump up shipments. Beautiful lies made up, 99.99% of the stock price without performance support is a castle built on the beach.

3．Don’t do transactions with unclear technical forms: any stock, if the dealer wants to speculate on it, it must go through a long period of preparatory work. Although everything the dealer does is extremely concealed, you can still see the operation track of the stock on the technical chart. We should try our best to avoid its many uncertain factors, not to spend time and energy in a stock with the dealer, and to intervene decisively when the dealer has finished all the preparations before the rise and is ready to pull up. And those stocks whose technical charts do not show any signs of going well, either have no dealers, or the dealers have not finished their preliminary work, and it is best to stay away from them as far as possible.

Besides the futures market, there are many fewer operable varieties in the futures market than stocks. It should be said that it is convenient for analysis and trading, but not all varieties are Suitable for investors to operate.

1. The trend styles of various varieties are different, some are fast and some are slow, some are warm and some are hot. At the same time, traders have different trading styles and personal personalities. Those who like prudent investment and those with good stamina are suitable for varieties with mild trends, such as soybeans and wheat in domestic futures; Anxious traders are suitable for products with active trends and sharp price fluctuations, such as rubber and copper in domestic futures. If a trader does not fully realize this and chooses a product that is not suitable for his own trading style, it is often because you read the market correctly but cannot make money. A good opportunity to enter the market is missed.

2. In the futures market, there are also shady scenes like the stock market. Sometimes some varieties are jointly manipulated by certain institutions (sometimes there are exchanges in it) At this time, there is no technology to speak of on this variety, and there is no fundamentals to analyze. The trend of this variety is entirely for the benefit of some people. When traders find this situation, it is best to It is to quit the transaction of this species (unless you have inside information), because the trend of this species can no longer be predicted and grasped, and staying in it is tantamount to gambling.

3. It is best not to make a newly listed contract. When a new variety is launched, it is difficult for traders to understand its trend style in a short period of time. At the same time, this variety is often The main force opens positions to complete its initial position, and in which direction to go in the future, it all depends on the proportion of the direction of the orders of the people who come in later, and the main force must operate in the opposite direction. At the same time, the trading volume of such varieties is bound to be small, and traders with larger funds cannot enter and exit smoothly. In addition, because these products are new peace contracts, there is no historical trend chart, and technical analysis is impossible; they have just been launched by the exchange, and it is difficult for ordinary people to know what the exchange wants to achieve through this product, so the fundamental analysis is also guesswork.

In short, don’t choose stocks and futures that you can’t grasp, no matter whether they can bring you huge profits or not, as long as the risk is not easy to control, it is similar to gambling. In the speculative market it is best to only make what you can safely make. Sun Tzu’s Art of War says: “There are certain roads that cannot be controlled, certain troops that cannot be attacked, certain cities that cannot be attacked, certain areas that cannot be contested, and certain things that cannot be resisted by the emperor’s orders.” Putting it in the speculative market means that some stocks and futures cannot be traded, and some money cannot be earned. .

Third, fund management: & I$ P, N9 a8 k8 d For those who invest in risky markets, the funds in your hand are your weapons in this speculative market. How reasonable is it? Using the funds in your hands is an important part of stock and futures operations. Fund management in the speculative market can be roughly divided into two aspects:
the ratio of funds invested in risky markets to your total assets:

You should not invest all your assets in the speculative market. As a professional stockholder in the stock market, you can invest up to 70% of your assets in the stock market, while non-professional stockholders can only invest 30%-40% of your funds at most. This is a risky market; professional futures investors in the futures market invest at most 50% of their own assets in the futures market, while beginners and inexperienced traders invest at most 15% of your own assets in the futures market.

2, how to use the funds invested in the market:

1. Stock market: No matter how sure you are about a certain stock, you must never invest all your funds in one stock. Unpredictable things happen, stock operation itself is to predict the future, no matter how accurate the judgment is, it can’t replace the actual trend, and you should never lose everything because of a wrong judgment, and never put all your eggs in one basket. However, the stocks made in the stock operation should not be too scattered, which is not easy to manage. Generally, 3-5 stocks are appropriate. 2. Futures market: In the futures market, traders decide what proportion of funds to allocate to each product according to their familiarity with each product, and then further manage the funds allocated to this product. Example:

Suppose a futures investor invests 1 million in domestic futures. As far as the current varieties are concerned, he makes the following allocations: soybeans 300,000, copper 300,000, wheat 200,000, and natural rubber 200,000. If you want to engage in the transaction of that product, you must make a market entry plan among the funds allocated for this product, and open 1/4, 1/3, 1/2 positions, which is the proportion of funds on this product rather than the proportion of total funds , There are several advantages in this way,

(1) Put an end to opening too large a position on a variety each time, and once the trend reverses, the loss will be huge (including stop loss).

(2) If a product is considered to have market potential through analysis, positions will be opened in batches, and all the funds on this product will be built in the end. However, for the total funds, it is not a full position operation, and the risk will not be excessively concentrated. YSHX

(3) The idleness of funds for other varieties is to wait for the trading opportunities that will appear in each variety. Because the trend of each variety is different, sometimes the flowers will not bloom if you deliberately plant flowers, but willow willows will become cloudy unintentionally. Don’t wait until you see a clear profit opportunity for a variety Sometimes, the good opportunity is missed because the funds are occupied by other varieties. yunshfx

(4) Generally speaking, each product in the futures needs to be earmarked for its own use, but the market is flexible and people are also flexible. When a product loses money during trading, traders can re-adjust the fund allocation on each product to find a suitable one. Fighters turn defeat into victory, or this type of trading makes a mistake and loses money, while other types make a profit if they do it right, you can encircle Wei and save Zhao.

(5) Taking a step back, for a trader who does not do a good job of risk control, the risk of operating with full positions on different varieties is much lower than the risk of using funds to operate with full positions on one variety. , It is unlikely that you will go against all varieties. Second, even if you go against all varieties, due to the different trend graphs of the varieties, you can see that you are wrong for some, so you can stop the loss in time or backhand. Third, the speed of the trend of each variety is different. It will never happen that all the varieties used are blocked at the same time. Traders will not be reversely blocked in the limit because of a crazy trend of a certain variety. Overwhelmed thing. Yun Shang Hui Xin Limited

Think of retreat before advancing, and be prepared for danger in times of peace. In the turbulent place of the speculative market, one must always leave a way out for oneself.Yun Shang Hui Xin